I’ll begin with an apology to economists. If an untrained economist were to write an article about physics or chemistry, it’s likely he or she would be given short shrift. So don’t take what I’ve got to say seriously. My opinions don’t matter – all that matters is my ability to take a steady flow of income from the markets.
And now for a little history…
On March 10 1988, an opposition MP goaded British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher at “Question Time” about the way her Treasury (run by Nigel Lawson) was using interest rate policy and intervention in the foreign exchange markets to keep sterling trading in a tight band with the deutschemark. Mrs. Thatcher actually deeply disapproved of Lawson’s exchange rate policy and she replied - famously:
“Adjustments are needed, as we learnt when we had a Bretton Woods system, as those in the EMS have learnt that they must have revaluation and devaluation from time to time. There is no way in which one can buck the market.”
Unfortunately for United Kingdom taxpayers, Mrs. Thatcher’s successor, John Major, did not subscribe to her views. Under his government the UK joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism at an unrealistic level. George Soros and others pounced on sterling, shorting it at considerable cost to taxpayers - whose money was recklessly wasted as the government sought to prop up sterling on FX markets.
Soros told the Times: “Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont [Treasury Chief] said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell.”
Moving on a few years came the Greenspan Put. Following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan – who had previously offered an opinion that stocks were overvalued – cut interest rates. Traders called Greenspan’s position “The Greenspan Put” because a put option gives investors the right to sell their stocks at a set price. Greenspan’s actions were seen as a guarantee to the market that he would keep cutting interest rates to prop up the stock market.
We can see the damage low interest rates and reckless loans have done to the economy. US consumers are expected to be the engine of world economic growth – even if they have to get into serious debt to do so. Every time consumers stop to get their breath back, they’re told to wake up and get out spending their money again (or more likely someone else’s money).
Today Ben Bernanke has talked about stimulating the economy again – through cutting interest rates and cutting taxes. This despite the fact that both inflation and government debt are already higher than anyone thinks is prudent.
It now seems all the more credible that the Fed. Chairman is trying to write the Bernanke Put. With the steep falls in stock prices today it seems the markets are telling him that - even with all the intervention in the world – they’ve realized that American consumers and taxpayers cannot go on borrowing forever to fund the expansion of their own and overseas economies.
Perhaps Ben Bernanke should pay heed to those famous words I’ve quoted from Margaret Thatcher?
One Response to “Margaret Thatcher, Ben Bernanke and the Greenspan Put”
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February 8th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Great post, and good blog by the way. I’ve been an adherent of Livermore since I was a 16 year old kid…..hell, that’s 35 years ago.
Jeff